As of today, the COVID positivity rate in NYC is either 3.17% (according to the City, which calculates averages based on the day tests are performed) or 2.6% (according to the State, which calculates the average based on the day test results are reported). The former number is high enough – over the 3% threshold – to have warranted closing schools here about a week back. Whereas the second is just under the same 3% number that would push the city into Cuomo’s “orange zone” designation, leading to (among other things) gyms closing for a second time.

At this point, the short-term fluctuation of either average is tough to predict. A slew of people have lined up for COVID tests in the past few days, in preparation for holiday travel, and I’m unsure whether that will push rates way down (as more people at low risk have been getting tested) or slightly up (catching asymptomatic folks who otherwise wouldn’t have gone in for a test). Similarly, I’m not sure whether the rates will be higher or lower right around Thanksgiving (certainly fewer people will be getting tested, but perhaps skewing towards those already showing serious symptoms?), nor how long post-Thanksgiving it will take for travel and group-celebration transmission to reflect in the numbers. So, for at least the next two weeks or so, it’s all very much up in the air. But, barring a miracle, it certainly seems like crossing 3% is less a question of if and more of when. By mid-December at the latest, I’m virtually certain we’ll once again be back to gym-less life.

At which point, in-person A3 beta testing will be shutting down again, too. Fortunately, this time through, we at least sort of know what we’re doing, and can spin back up the at-home, virtual-only infrastructure we banged out over the spring and summer. Further, we also have a sense of how to reboot things – both logistically, and in terms of workouts least likely to wreck people as they return to weights for the first time in months – once gyms come back online a second time. So, mostly, we’ll be fine.

At some level, it’s even a bit of a relief. Without mandate from above, I’m forced to make hard trade-offs on my own. At what point does the danger to myself, my coaches, and our clients outweigh the fitness, business, and product-development gains? Whereas, if closing is Governor-decreed, I’m spared the choice. And, frankly, after these last couple of months of early mornings, multiple daily bike commutes, and fractured schedules, I’ll be happy for the relative ease of entire days working from the couch. This time, I even have unavoidable dog walks to make sure I don’t go full potato.

Or, at least, that’s the glass half-full (or, possibly, 10% full) story I’ve been telling myself. At this point, I put the over/under date for gym closings at about December 7th. Until then, I’ll be refreshing the statistics, trying to make the best of gym time that I can, and muddling ahead, one pandemic day at a time.